¿Dónde son apropiadas las estrategias de gestión basadas en la resiliencia para los arrecifes de coral? Mapeo de las condiciones ambientales y las tendencias de la cubierta coralina en Guam y Samoa Americana
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Las estrategias de gestión basadas en la resiliencia están ganando atención como herramientas para la supervivencia y recuperación de corales en condiciones crecientemente estresantes. La priorización de sitios para aplicar estrategias depende de dónde los corales muestran signos de resiliencia y cómo las condiciones ambientales pueden cambiar con el cambio climático. Sintetizamos las condiciones ambientales y tendencias de cobertura de coral en Guam y Samoa Americana utilizando condiciones climáticas actuales y 2 escenarios climáticos futuros: trayectorias de concentración representativas 4.5 y 8.5. Examinamos la superposición espacial entre condiciones ambientales favorables y desfavorables y lugares en los que arrecifes de coral mantuvieron o aumentaron su cobertura en la última década. Ubicaciones que representan 4 combinaciones de las características mencionadas pueden presentar diferentes estrategias de gestión: (1) conservación/restauración de corales robustos, (2) restauración de corales en declive, (3) conservación del material genético de corales robustos/mitigación de factores estresantes y (4) ninguna estrategia clara para corales en declive. En función de estas combinaciones, estimamos áreas potenciales para implementar múltiples acciones de gestión. Bajo condiciones climáticas actuales, la conservación del material genético/mitigación de factores estresantes estaban sobrerrepresentadas en Guam: 23% del área que disminuyó a 15% en escenarios futuros. La restauración del coral estaba inicialmente subrepresentada (0%). En Samoa Americana, la superficie proporcional para cada estrategia fue constante. La restauración del coral estaba sobrerrepresentada con 54-56% del área; la conservación del material genético y mitigación de factores estresantes estaban infrarrepresentadas (9% y 11%, respectivamente). Nuestro enfoque ofrece una forma rápida de evaluar dónde aplicar medidas de gestión con datos agregados sobre grandes extensiones para complementar evaluaciones detalladas y laboriosas de la dinámica de comunidades arrecifales, especialmente si las distintas comunidades coralinas delimitan las unidades de agregación. Estos resultados pueden orientar a gestores para seleccionar sitios ecológicamente adecuados para aplicar estrategias basadas en la resiliencia.
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